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+19 per minute · since 00:00 UTC
This is a live, continuously changing estimate. It isn't printed here because a figure on paper would be wrong the moment you read it — see the current value at https://earthnow.app/signal/net-rise-in-adults-with-diabetes-today.
Estimated, not measured
More than four in ten adults living with diabetes do not know they have it, the IDF estimates. So how many people have diabetes and how many have been diagnosed are two different counts, and this counter follows the first, as a projection averaged to mid-century rather than a count of anyone.
The projected net rise since midnight UTC in the number of adults living with diabetes, diagnosed or not. It is the difference between the IDF Diabetes Atlas's latest estimate and its projection for mid-century, spread evenly across the years between.
This is not how many people are diagnosed today, and it is not a count of new cases. It is a net change: people newly living with diabetes, less those who die or pass the Atlas's upper age limit. And it is a projection averaged over decades, so it cannot say whether the rise is running faster or slower than projected.
Nobody counts this as it happens. EarthNow takes a published figure for the whole day, divides it by the 86,400 seconds in a day, and multiplies by the seconds elapsed since midnight UTC. So the value climbs smoothly and is the right order of magnitude — but the smoothness is arithmetic, not observation. Nothing happening in the world is being watched in real time.
value = daily total ÷ 86,400 × seconds since 00:00 UTC
A consequence worth knowing: the counter resets at midnight UTC, not at your midnight. And because the figure advances at a constant rate, this page cannot tell you whether today is unusual. For that you need a measurement.
A projection, averaged: the IDF Diabetes Atlas estimates 589 million adults aged 20–79 living with diabetes in 2024 and projects 853 million by 2050, and this is the rise between the two spread evenly over those 26 years. It is a net change in how many adults live with diabetes, diagnosed or not — the Atlas estimates 43% are undiagnosed — so it is not a count of new diagnoses or of new cases.
The figure is theirs; the running total is ours. Cite them for the number, and EarthNow for what it looks like as it accumulates.
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